Protests called by the Movement for Justice, led by Imran Khan and the Sufi cleric Tahirul Qadri under the banner of anti-corruption, demanding the resignation of the Sharif government, are storming Pakistan and are scheduled to hit Islamabad on August 14, Pakistan’s Independence Day. Rumours of a possible intervention by the Pakistani army, intrigues and conspiracies are poisoning the atmosphere of a country gripped by a permanent crisis and a constant in fight among different sections of the ruling class. Here we provide an analysis by Lal Khan.
The army may be forced to take direct power but this, in all probability, will be the result of some real danger to the prevailing status quo on the streets where the very survival and existence of the state is glaringly posed.
Speculations and conspiracy theories are once again mired in uncertainty, desperation, dearth and deprivation. The politicos of the present system are out in this odious game of palatial intrigues and deceptions spiced up with deceit. Across the present spectrum of moneyed politics, from the wily Zardari to the cunning Islamic fundamentalist Sirajul Haq, political manoeuvres and strategies of gaining greater stakes are in full swing. Zardari is said to be holding the aces after his much publicised high profile visit to the US and his meetings with top officials of the US administration, including Vice President Joe Biden. According to his spokesman, Zardari’s visit was to save democracy. Whether it was to salvage the PML-N regime or for a higher democratic setup, one can only wonder.
The military and the bureaucracy’s top brass are coming out with the charade of indifference to these threats to the existing order. Setting aside the speculators, the possibility of another military takeover is a bit farfetched. But such is the severity of the crisis and a society gripped with relentless turmoil that it is almost impossible to develop an unconditional perspective. The media moguls and anchors, for their ratings, have gone into overdrive in hyping up the suspense of what will happen on August 14 and some have declared it a doomsday scenario. The betting mafias are having a field day; if not cricket, why not the political scenarios that are so unpredictable and yet so obvious? Billions will change hands where the winners will only be these gambling barons who have close connections to the elite. The real losers in this fake and contemptuous power struggle are the oppressed and the beleaguered masses.
Desperation is the state of mind on all sides. Imran Khan seems to be playing a very high stakes game. The Sharifs are in a state of palpable panic and their confidence has declined to such a level that even Qadri, with nominal though committed forces, has sent them scuttling around in circles. The top jokers in the pack of the establishment, the Chaudhry brothers, are now incredulously calling for a revolution. The desperation of the regime was laid bare when they invoked Article 245 of the Constitution, giving up the security of the capital to the army. The generals very wisely have sent in about 300 soldiers from the 111 Brigade as a gesture of their adherence to the constitution and not anything they could be serious about. From business enterprises to the operation in North Waziristan, the top brass is focusing on its policy of ‘strategic depth’ and what is going to happen after the possible withdrawal of the bulk of NATO forces from Afghanistan this year. With a rapidly declining economy, social and physical infrastructure and implosion within society, the military has no appetite for direct power. Why should they when it is the real power on all the crucial policy issues from behind the scenes? Musharraf was more frank than others in describing political superstructures. In his book, In the Line of Fire, he wrote, “Whatever the law, civil or military, the poor are always the victims of oppression.”
The army may be forced to take direct power but this, in all probability, will be the result of some real danger to the prevailing status quo on the streets where the very survival and existence of the state is glaringly posed. However, the army will do this very reluctantly and will have to brace itself for crises and revolts, the likes of which it has never faced in its history, leading to mass upheaval beyond not only the army’s control. The PPP’s leadership has lost credibility and has been knocked into a probably permanent coma by the crimes of its leadership.
The conditions of the economy and society are reflected in the political and the military leadership that is at the helm. A British journalist, Anatol Lieven, described the ruling elites in his recent book, Pakistan: A Hard Country: “Some of the toughest creepers holding the rotten tree of the Pakistani system together are at one and the same time parasites on that tree, and sometimes smell bad even by their own standards...when local forms differ from the supposed western ‘norm’ they are not examined, but are treated as temporary aberrations, diseases to be cured or tumours to be cut out of the otherwise healthy patients system. In fact, these ‘diseases’ are (Lieven’s italics) the system, and can only be ‘cured’ by a revolutionary change in the system...kinship is a critical anti-revolutionary force, whether the revolution is of a socialist or Islamic variety...offering such a change are the radical Islamists, and their cure would certainly finish the patient off altogether.”
For some years now there has been a din of revolutionary sloganeering from the obscenely rich, anti-working class and reactionary politicians. Shahbaz Sharif is very fond of reciting Habib Jalib’s revolutionary poetry. For those who knew Jalib, the indignation Jalib would have felt for this act is unimaginable. The ‘kaptaan’s’ (captain’s) revolution is just absurd. It is utterly bizarre that revolution is being spouted by the very pillars that are the cornerstones of this oppressive state and the system! With all the capitalists and landed aristocracy in his party’s leadership, one is shell-shocked when Imran talks of revolution. Qadri’s revolution is everywhere and nowhere. With the Chaudhry brothers and Altaf bhai undertow and spiced up religious mythology, his revolution is incomprehensible for any sane human mind. But all this political riff-raff is exposing the rottenness of capitalism and its daily infliction of pain on the ordinary people, in the process eroding the defences of the state and the political superstructure. Whatever happens on August 14, there will be no end to the sufferings of the oppressed masses.
Looking at the present political scenario of Pakistan’s rotten elite, one cannot help but reminisce on what Karl Marx wrote about the politics of France in the mid-19th century: “Alliances whose first proviso is separation; struggles whose first law is indecision; wild, insane agitation in the name of tranquillity, most solemn preaching of tranquillity in the name of revolution; passions without truths, truths without passion; heroes without heroic deeds, history without events; development, whose sole driving force seems to be the calendar, wearying with the constant repetition of the same tensions and relaxations; antagonisms that periodically seem to work out themselves up to a climax, only to lose their edge and fall away without being able to resolve themselves; pretentiously paraded exertions and the bourgeois fears of the danger of the world coming to an end, and at the same time pettiest of the intrigues and court comedies played by the saviours of the world.”
First published on August 10, 2014 by the Daily Times, Pakistan